Summary Analysis of Nigerian Politics this week

#PoliticsThisWeek By-@Samhart

As Nigeria begins to gear up for 2019 general elections news about alliancies and defections take centre stage. Senior Special Assistant to the Governor on Public Communications (Abia State) Sam Hart explains in 11 tweets, what to expect at this interesting times in Nigerian politics.

This week is going to be lit in the political sphere in Nigeria.

1. NASS goes on 8 weeks recess on Thursday 26/8/2018 to enable Senators & Reps prepare for their various Party primaries. Primaries at various levels begin 1st week of August & wrap up September.

2. Shouldn't be a problem except that most Members of NASS are facing uncertain political futures.The Party Congresses &Convention that held recently left many NASS Members in no doubt that as things stand, they are not returning to the National Assembly next year.

3. This is a problem across PDP and APC, the dominant National Parties. The leadership of both arms of the NASS incidentally have grievances with their party the APC for different reasons. Saraki for the humiliation he has faced in the last 3 years & Dogara for diff with State Gov.

4. Most Members of NASS are equally on tenterhooks so this week is crucial.

The aggrieved NASS Members sympathetic to rAPC are eagerly awaiting the outcome of a meeting scheduled for Tuesday between rAPC & APC leaders. Their demand is 1. Automatic return ticket guarantee for them.

5. Should the APC agree to their demands & sign a written guarantee of return ticket for them, they will remain in the party. If however the Tuesday meeting does not yield the desired outcome, there will be a gail of massive defections on the floor of both NASS Chambers on Thursday.

6. Here is where it gets interesting & why the rAPC NASS Members are panicking. They are equally making the same automatic return guarantee demand of PDP before they can decamp but the PDP is finding it difficult to convince warming up members to shelve ambition for them.

7. So our NASS rAPC Members have 4 options from now until Thursday.

1. APC agrees to auto ticket, stay.
2. PDP agrees to auto ticket, move.
3. Neither APC nor PDP agrees, move to lesser party for ticket.
4. Neither APC nor PDP agrees, see out current tenure & fade away.

8. Some people though, like Saraki's people in Kwara say that irrespective of outcome of Tuesday meeting, they're done with APC & no going back. Saraki's clout & body language of PDP National leadership shows Kwara State PDP Structure will be handed to him. He decides who emerges.

9. Lots of Governors are also waiting to see how the pendulum swings this week to decide their next move. At least 5 Govs are at Departure lounge unless flight is cancelled.

Tambuwal will decamp & run for Presidency under PDP. Doesn't work, he'll retain Gov ticket for 2nd Term.

10. So as things stand, by Thursday, barring renegotiation, APC may lose it's majority in both Chambers of the National Assembly and also lose the Senate Presidency & Speakership of the House of Reps. Precedent was set with Tambuwal under GEJ. It will have to continue now.


11. A couple of states may also declare holidays this week to enable workers go get their PVC. Enquire ahead before you fly out for that scheduled meeting at a State Capital.